Snowfall projection 2

We’re about 24 hours away from our sixth significant winter storm in seven weeks for parts of Minnesota.

Tuesday’s forecast models are trending a little slower and farther south:

Snowfall probabilities

Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Winter storm watches and warnings are up for most of southern Minnesota.

Scott-Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan- Including the cities of Shakopee, Hastings, New Ulm, St Peter, and St James

251 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023


* WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches possible.

* WHERE…Scott, Dakota, Brown, Nicollet and Watonwan Counties.

* WHEN…From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

The big picture involves snow breaking out across southern Minnesota Wednesday evening and pushing north into the Twin Cities region around midnight. Snow will continue overnight into Thursday morning, then taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the trend of a slightly slower and farther south system, but the big picture remains the same:

NOAA NAM 3 km model 2

NOAA NAM 3 km model between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 3 p.m. Thursday

NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Snowfall totals by Thursday afternoon across the greater Twin Cities will likely show a big range from north to south. The far northern Twin Cities could see as little as a couple of inches. The best chance for 6 inches or more favors the southeastern Twin Cities, specifically Dakota County.

Snowfall projection 2

Snowfall projection

Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Here’s the bigger snowfall picture for Minnesota:

Snowfall projection for Minnesota  2

Snowfall projection for Minnesota


Stay tuned as we see what Wednesday’s forecast models do before the snow flies later Wednesday night.

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